Unrest in Africa: Current Events and Challenges

There’s a lot going on in Africa, and sometimes it feels like the news only scratches the surface. If you’re wondering what’s really happening on the ground, the short answer is that several regions are experiencing significant political instability, conflict, and humanitarian crises, often driven by a complex mix of historical grievances, economic pressures, climate change, and external interference. It’s not one big, monolithic “unrest,” but rather a series of distinct, though sometimes interconnected, challenges playing out across the continent.

West Africa has been a hotspot for political upheaval and security concerns in recent years, particularly with a worrying trend of military takeovers and the persistent threat of extremist groups.

A String of Coups: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger

We’ve seen a concerning pattern emerge in the Sahel region, with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger all experiencing military coups within a relatively short timeframe. These aren’t isolated incidents; they reflect deeper frustrations with governance, corruption, and a perceived inability of civilian governments to tackle pressing security issues, especially the rise of jihadi groups.

• Mali’s ongoing transition: Mali has been in a tumultuous state since 2012, with two coups in 2020 and 2021. The military junta has pushed back on agreed-upon election timelines, leading to tensions with regional and international bodies. Their pivot towards Russia for security assistance, moving away from traditional partners like France, has further complicated the geopolitical landscape. This shift raises questions about the effectiveness of such partnerships and their long-term implications for stability and human rights.
• Burkina Faso’s double trouble: Burkina Faso has also seen two coups in 2022. The security situation there has deteriorated significantly, with large swathes of territory falling under the control of extremist groups. This instability has displaced millions and created a dire humanitarian situation. The military government, like Mali’s, has struggled to regain control and is also exploring new international security alliances.
• Niger’s latest shake-up: The coup in Niger in July 2023 was particularly impactful, as it had been seen as a relatively stable democratic outpost in the region and a key Western ally in counter-terrorism efforts. The military’s takeover has been met with strong condemnation from ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), which initially threatened military intervention. While that intervention hasn’t materialized, sanctions and diplomatic pressure have been applied, creating significant economic hardship for ordinary Nigeriens. The coup leaders, much like their counterparts in Mali and Burkina Faso, have cited security and governance issues as their justification, but concerns about democratic backsliding are paramount.

Jihadi Insurgencies: A Spreading Threat

Beyond the coups, the underlying security challenge across the Sahel is the persistent and expanding threat from various jihadi groups, including affiliates of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

• Regional spread: What began largely in Mali has now spread significantly into Burkina Faso and Niger, and there are growing concerns about its encroachment into coastal West African states like Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Ivory Coast. These groups exploit existing ethnic tensions, poverty, and weak state presence to recruit and expand their influence.
• Local impact: The impact on local communities is devastating. Villages are attacked, schools are closed, infrastructure is destroyed, and millions are displaced. The violence exacerbates food insecurity and limits access to basic services, creating a massive humanitarian crisis that often goes underreported. The groups often levy taxes, enforce their own interpretations of law, and disrupt traditional economic activities, further entrenching their control in areas where the state’s reach is limited.
• Challenges to counter-terrorism efforts: International and regional counter-terrorism efforts have struggled to contain these groups. Criticisms often point to a lack of comprehensive strategies that go beyond military solutions to address the root causes of radicalization, such as poverty, lack of education, and marginalization. The withdrawal of French forces from Mali and Burkina Faso, and the current tensions in Niger, have created a vacuum that these groups are adept at exploiting.

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East Africa’s Enduring Conflicts and Humanitarian Crises

East Africa, while geographically distinct from the Sahel, faces its own set of deeply entrenched conflicts and humanitarian emergencies, often exacerbated by climate change.

Sudan’s Devastating Civil War

The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has plunged the country into a full-blown civil war, with catastrophic consequences.

• Power struggle and civilian impact: This conflict is essentially a power struggle between two generals, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti (RSF), who were once allies in the 2021 coup but then turned on each other. The fighting has been particularly brutal in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, where echoes of past genocides are chillingly present. Civilians have borne the brunt of the violence, with widespread killings, sexual violence, and forced displacement.
• Humanitarian catastrophe: The war has triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Millions have been displaced internally and across borders into neighboring countries like Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt. Food insecurity is rampant, with large parts of the population facing starvation, and the healthcare system has all but collapsed. Aid access is severely restricted by the warring parties, making it incredibly difficult to deliver life-saving assistance.
• Regional destabilization: The conflict threatens to destabilize the entire region. Neighboring countries, already grappling with their own challenges, are struggling to cope with the influx of refugees. There are also concerns about external actors potentially fueling the conflict, further complicating efforts to find a peaceful resolution. Diplomatic efforts by regional bodies like IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) and international actors have so far failed to achieve a lasting ceasefire or a political breakthrough.

Ethiopia’s Fragile Peace and Regional Tensions

While the November 2022 peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) brought a formal end to the devastating two-year war, Ethiopia continues to navigate a complex landscape of internal conflicts and regional disputes.

• Post-Tigray war challenges: The peace in Tigray is still fragile, with significant humanitarian needs and a long road to recovery and reconciliation. Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) processes are crucial but face challenges. Moreover, the conflict left deep scars, and addressing accountability for war crimes and human rights abuses is a critical but sensitive issue.
• Oromia’s ongoing insurgency: Outside of Tigray, the Oromia region, Ethiopia’s largest and most populous, continues to experience a low-level but persistent insurgency by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). This conflict, driven by grievances over political marginalization and resource allocation, contributes to instability and human rights concerns. Efforts to negotiate with the OLA have so far yielded little concrete progress, and clashes between government forces and the OLA continue to displace people and claim lives.
• Border disputes and regional dynamics: Ethiopia also faces ongoing tensions with neighboring Eritrea, which played a controversial role in the Tigray war, and with Sudan over the disputed al-Fashaga border region. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Nile River remains a point of contention with Egypt and Sudan, who fear its impact on their water supply. These external pressures add another layer of complexity to Ethiopia’s already challenging internal security environment.

The Democratic Republic of Congo: A Perpetual Crisis

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to be plagued by protracted conflict, primarily in its eastern provinces, driven by a multitude of armed groups, competition for resources, and regional interference.

Kivu’s Endless Cycle of Violence

The eastern DRC, particularly the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, has been in a state of crisis for decades, and the situation has deteriorated significantly in recent years.

• M23 resurgence: The M23 rebel group, which had been largely dormant since 2013, resurfaced in late 2021 and has since made significant territorial gains, displacing hundreds of thousands of people. The group’s resurgence has led to renewed accusations from the DRC government that Rwanda is actively supporting M23, a claim Rwanda denies. This diplomatic spat has heightened regional tensions and complicated efforts to find a peaceful resolution.
• Myriad armed groups: Beyond M23, eastern DRC is home to over 100 other armed groups, including the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamist group with alleged links to ISIS, and various Mai-Mai militias. These groups engage in widespread violence, including killings, kidnappings, sexual violence, and forced recruitment, primarily targeting civilians. They often exploit local grievances and control lucrative mineral resources, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of conflict.
• Humanitarian disaster: The ongoing conflict has created one of the world’s largest internal displacement crises, with millions forced to flee their homes, often multiple times. The humanitarian response is severely underfunded and access to those in need is often restricted by insecurity. Diseases like cholera and measles thrive in crowded displacement camps, and food insecurity is a major concern.

Resource Curse and External Influence

The DRC’s vast mineral wealth, particularly its deposits of cobalt and coltan – crucial components for modern electronics – ironically fuels much of the conflict.

• Exploitation and illicit trade: Various armed groups and even elements within the national army profit from the illicit mining and trade of these minerals. This resource curse incentivizes conflict rather than peace, as control over mines provides a steady income stream for belligerents. Despite international efforts to track “conflict minerals,” the complex supply chains make it incredibly difficult to prevent their entry into global markets.
• Regional proxy wars: The eastern DRC has long been a theater for regional proxy wars, with neighboring countries like Rwanda and Uganda accused of backing various armed groups to secure their own strategic and economic interests. This external interference makes it incredibly difficult for the DRC government to establish control and achieve lasting peace. The regional force deployed by the East African Community (EACRF) has had mixed results, with some criticizing its effectiveness and neutrality.

Southern Africa’s Stability Under Pressure

While generally more stable than other regions, Southern Africa is not without its own security challenges, particularly an expanding extremist insurgency in Mozambique.

Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Insurgency

Northern Mozambique, specifically the Cabo Delgado province, has been grappling with an increasingly sophisticated and brutal Islamist insurgency since 2017.

• Origins and expansion: The group, known locally as Al-Shabaab (though unrelated to the Somali group) and which has pledged allegiance to ISIS, initially capitalized on local grievances over poverty, inequality, and perceived government neglect. It has since escalated its attacks, seizing towns, disrupting gas projects, and displacing over a million people. The discovery of vast natural gas reserves in the region has arguably made it a more attractive target for the insurgents and complicated the conflict dynamic.
• Regional response: The Mozambican government initially struggled to contain the insurgency, leading to the deployment of forces from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda. These foreign forces have had some success in pushing back the insurgents and reclaiming territory, but the insurgency remains a persistent threat, adapting its tactics to asymmetric warfare. The long-term challenge is not just military, but also addressing the root causes of radicalization and building community resilience.
• Humanitarian fallout: The violence has had a devastating impact on civilians, leading to widespread displacement, food insecurity, and a collapse of basic services in affected areas. Access for humanitarian organizations is often difficult due to insecurity, and the needs of displaced populations are immense.

Other Regional Concerns

Beyond Cabo Delgado, Southern Africa faces other, albeit less acute, security and governance challenges.

• Zimbabwe’s enduring crisis: Zimbabwe continues to grapple with a protracted economic crisis, political repression, and human rights concerns, particularly around election periods. These issues, while not involving armed conflict, create significant internal instability and lead to mass migration, impacting neighboring countries.
• Lesotho’s political instability: Lesotho, a small mountainous kingdom entirely surrounded by South Africa, has a history of political instability, including coup attempts and parliamentary impasses. While generally peaceful, these political upheavals threaten democratic institutions and hinder socio-economic development.
• South Africa’s internal pressures: South Africa, while the regional powerhouse, faces its own significant internal challenges, including high unemployment, inequality, crime, and occasional xenophobic violence. These issues, if unaddressed, have the potential to spill over and impact regional stability.

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North Africa’s Persistent Instability and Migration Pressures

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North Africa, geographically and culturally distinct from much of sub-Saharan Africa, also grapples with its own forms of instability, often tied to post-Arab Spring transitions and its role as a major transit route for migration.

Libya’s Fractured State

Libya remains deeply divided and unstable, more than a decade after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi.

• Divided governance: The country is effectively split between rival governments in the east and west, each backed by various armed groups and external powers. This division prevents the formation of a unified state and hinders efforts to rebuild the country’s institutions. The presence of numerous militias and foreign mercenaries further complicates the security landscape.
• Humanitarian and migration hub: Libya is a major transit point for migrants and asylum seekers attempting to reach Europe, often leading to severe human rights abuses, including arbitrary detention, torture, and exploitation. The lack of effective state control allows smuggling networks to flourish, making it a dangerous and desperate journey for those passing through.
• External interference: Various international and regional actors continue to exert influence, providing support to different factions, which prolongs the conflict and makes a sustainable political resolution elusive. Efforts to broker peace and establish a unified transitional government have repeatedly failed.

Tunisia’s Democratic Backslide

Tunisia, once hailed as the sole democratic success story of the Arab Spring, has experienced a significant backslide in recent years.

• Presidential power grab: President Kais Saied’s consolidation of power since 2021, including dissolving parliament, dismissing the government, and rewriting the constitution, has raised serious concerns about the erosion of democratic institutions and human rights. Critics argue he is establishing an authoritarian regime.
• Economic woes and social unrest: The country is also facing a severe economic crisis, characterized by high inflation, unemployment, and public debt. These economic pressures have fueled social unrest and frustration, further challenging the government’s legitimacy and creating a volatile environment.
• Migration crackdown: Tunisia has also become a focal point in the EU’s efforts to curb irregular migration across the Mediterranean, leading to controversial agreements and concerns about the treatment of migrants within Tunisia.

Algeria and Morocco’s Enduring Rivalry

The long-standing geopolitical rivalry between Algeria and Morocco continues to simmer, primarily centered around the disputed territory of Western Sahara.

• Western Sahara stalemate: The conflict over Western Sahara remains unresolved, with Morocco controlling most of the territory and Algeria supporting the Polisario Front, which seeks an independent state. This frozen conflict prevents regional cooperation and occasionally flares up, threatening broader stability.
• Diplomatic tensions: The rivalry manifests in various diplomatic spats, border closures, and even a halt in gas supplies, impacting regional integration and economic development. The lack of a resolution on Western Sahara remains a major impediment to a more stable and cooperative Maghreb region.

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The Broader Context: Drivers of Instability

Understanding the current unrest isn’t just about listing conflicts; it’s about recognizing the underlying factors that fuel them. These aren’t new issues, but their combination and intensity are creating complex challenges.

Climate Change: A Conflict Multiplier

Climate change isn’t directly causing conflicts, but it’s acting as a significant “threat multiplier,” exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and fueling resource competition.

• Resource scarcity: Changing rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, and desertification are leading to severe water and food scarcity, particularly in the Sahel and East Africa. This forces pastoralist and farming communities to compete for shrinking resources, often sparking inter-communal violence.
• Forced displacement: Climate-induced environmental degradation makes land unlivable and unproductive, forcing people to migrate, often into already strained urban areas or other rural communities. This displacement can create new social tensions and put pressure on limited resources, making communities more susceptible to recruitment by armed groups.
• Economic impact: The economic foundations of many agrarian societies are undermined by climate change, pushing more people into poverty and unemployment. This makes them more vulnerable to manipulation and recruitment by extremist groups who offer a sense of belonging, purpose, or economic opportunity.

Governance Deficits and Corruption

Weak governance, corruption, and a lack of inclusive political processes are consistently cited as major drivers of instability.

• Lack of trust: When governments are perceived as corrupt, illegitimate, or unable to deliver basic services and security, public trust erodes. This creates a vacuum that non-state actors, including rebel groups and extremists, can exploit by offering alternative forms of governance or justice, even if brutal.
• Exclusion and marginalization: Political systems that exclude certain ethnic groups, regions, or youth from power and economic opportunities breed resentment and a sense of marginalization. This can lead to grievances that fuel armed rebellion and demands for greater autonomy or representation.
• Security sector reform: In many countries, security forces are often seen as part of the problem rather than the solution. Lack of professionalism, human rights abuses, and corruption within the military and police can alienate populations and weaken state legitimacy, further complicating counter-insurgency efforts.

Geopolitical Competition and External Interference

Africa has increasingly become a stage for renewed geopolitical competition, with various global and regional powers vying for influence, resources, and strategic advantage.

• New alliances: The shift away from traditional Western partners by some Sahelian states towards Russia, particularly for military assistance, highlights this competition. Russia’s Wagner Group, a private military company, has expanded its presence, often trading security support for access to resources and political influence, raising concerns about human rights and the opaque nature of these agreements.
• Resource competition: The continent’s vast mineral wealth, including oil, gas, and critical minerals for the green transition, attracts significant external interest. This competition can sometimes fuel local conflicts, as external actors align with different factions to secure access to these resources.
• Limited regional capacity: While regional bodies like ECOWAS, SADC, and the AU (African Union) are working to address these challenges, they often face limitations in terms of resources, political will, and the ability to enforce decisions, especially when powerful member states or external actors are involved. This can lead to slow or ineffective responses to crises.

Navigating this complex landscape requires a nuanced understanding, moving beyond simplistic narratives. It’s about recognizing the interconnectedness of these challenges and the resilience of the people living through them, while pushing for more sustainable and inclusive solutions.